The French real estate market is going through a transitional phase where the recovery of the existing market coexists with a deep crisis in new builds and a tightening of energy regulations for the rental stock. Several contradictory signals complicate the outlook for the coming months: credit rates remain attractive, prices are stabilizing in certain metropolitan areas, but new construction is not picking up and energy renovation imposes new constraints on landlords.
New housing in France: a crisis that the recovery of the existing market does not mask
Most analyses of the real estate market focus on the volume of transactions in the existing market and the evolution of credit rates. The new build segment tells a different story. According to the FPI Observatory, whose data was presented on September 9, 2026, individual investors have been increasing from a historically low level. This rebound is not enough to compensate for the collapse in reservations observed over several quarters.
The problem lies upstream of commercialization. Building permits and construction starts remain at very low levels. The French Building Federation, in its analysis published on September 18, 2026, believes that the temporary increase in construction starts in 2026 does not characterize a true recovery. It even fears further deterioration in 2027.
For those who regularly follow the news from the News Immo site, this gap between the recovering existing market and the stagnant new builds illustrates a two-speed market. Developers are struggling to launch new programs in the face of high construction costs and a demand weakened by the gradual end of certain tax incentives.
Energy renovation and DPE: what changes for landlords
The regulatory framework surrounding the energy performance of rented housing reached a new level in 2026. Decree No. 2026-822 of August 25, 2026, modifies the access conditions to MaPrimeRénov’ for rental properties classified as E, F, or G. The supported pathway now favors a comprehensive renovation with a minimum gain of two DPE classes and several simultaneous work items.
This change in regime has direct consequences on landlords’ budgets. Renovating a single item (such as attic insulation) is no longer sufficient to access subsidies. A large-scale renovation is required, which implies a significantly higher initial investment.
The new DPE calculation and its effects on the electrical stock
The method for calculating the DPE has been adjusted. This modification can improve the rating of certain homes heated by electricity, without altering the regulatory timeline. Properties classified as G are already subject to a rental ban. Several elements deserve attention:
- Homes heated by electricity may see their rating improve by one class due to the new calculation method, sometimes moving them out of the thermal sieve category.
- The rental ban timeline remains unchanged: owners of F-rated properties will have to comply with the requirements in the coming years.
- The supported pathway now requires addressing multiple work items simultaneously (insulation, ventilation, heating), making partial renovations insufficient to benefit from subsidies.
Field reports vary on the actual impact of these adjustments. Some landlords find their property reclassified without any work, while others discover that their home remains below the threshold despite recent renovations.
Housing Bill: thermal sieves and rent control
The Housing Bill, examined in September 2026, contains several provisions that reshape the rental market framework. Among them, the possibility of temporarily renting out thermal sieves could expand the rental supply in tight areas.
This measure has sparked a lively debate. On one hand, it addresses a shortage of available housing in certain metropolitan areas. On the other hand, it contradicts the energy transition objectives set by the government. The available data does not yet allow for measuring the concrete effect on the volume of properties re-rented.
Rent control: geographical extension of the scheme
At the same time, rent control continues to expand to new territories. Several municipalities have joined the scheme, which sets a reference rent above which the landlord cannot go. For investors, this extension alters the calculation of rental profitability in medium-sized cities that were previously unaffected.
The government is also considering reducing the tax advantages of furnished rentals as early as 2027, a lever historically used by investors to optimize their income. The stated goal is to eliminate the imbalances between unfurnished and furnished rentals.
Mortgage credit and prices: fragile stabilization of the market
Mortgage credit rates remain at levels deemed competitive by brokers, which supports demand in the existing market. The recovery in transaction volume that began at the end of 2025 continues, but it remains incomplete according to several industry observers.
On the price side, the trend varies significantly by territory. The most sought-after metropolitan areas are seeing their prices stabilize, or even slightly rise. Medium-sized cities and rural areas are experiencing more contrasting dynamics, with corrections still ongoing in some sectors.
- Buyers with a substantial down payment benefit from a still favorable negotiating position, especially on properties requiring work.
- Rental demand remains strong in major urban areas, driven by the shortage of available housing and the postponement of purchases by some households.
- The market remains selective: well-located properties with good energy performance find buyers quickly, while thermal sieves suffer marked discounts.
The central question for the coming months is the ability of new builds to restart. Without a significant increase in the supply of new housing, the pressure on the existing stock is likely to keep prices at a high level in the most sought-after areas, despite favorable financing conditions.
